Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
